|
Post by AD on Jan 31, 2011 16:53:51 GMT -5
Well, with "The King's Speech" winning the top prize at the PGA's, DGA's, and SAG Awards, I think it's safe to say we now have a legitimate two horse race for the Oscar.
I'm wondering if that whole "movie of the moment" vibe has finally worn off "The Social Network."
|
|
|
Post by Her 69 Eyes on Jan 31, 2011 21:32:08 GMT -5
I've seen a few websites predicting The King's Speech for Best Picture and David Fincher for Best Director. I think that's highly likely, although i'm still going with The Social Network for Best Picture... although The King's Speech is indeed taking away some of it's momentum.
The acting awards seem locked up. Natalie Portman, Colin Firth, Christian Bale, and Melissa Leo. I love Melissa Leo, but not in a million years did I think she would be the favorite. Her performance was entertaining, but considering the emotional heft that Carter or even Adams brought to their respective films, it's bizarre that she's found herself so far in the lead.
|
|
|
Post by VyperJMc on Feb 7, 2011 0:35:30 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by AD on Feb 26, 2011 19:59:54 GMT -5
Tomorrow's the big night, time for some predictions.
----------------
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Will win - The King’s Speech Should win - Black Swan
The King’s Speech has taken all of The Social Network’s momentum after the Globes, plus it’s the type of historical drama that is like crack to Oscar voters, so that’s why I’m leaning towards Speech. Of course, I still wouldn’t be surprised if that facebook movie took the win. Nothing else stands a chance.
----------------
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Will win - Colin Firth: The King’s Speech Should win - Colin Firth: The King’s Speech
He probably should have won last year, he will win this year, and he deserves it. Colin Firth is awesome.
----------------
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Will win - Natalie Portman: Black Swan Should win - Annette Bening: The Kids Are All Right
It’s a real shame that Mrs. Warren Beatty was screwed out of an almost certain Supporting Actress win by her own studio’s insistence on her being included in the lead actress category. Portman is a good enough winner, though, so I can’t complain too much.
----------------
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Will win - Christian Bale: The Fighter Should win - John Hawkes: Winter’s Bone
Hawkes was as frightening as any movie character in recent years (and there have been some good ones), but Bale will win because he did a voice, and transformed himself physically, and played a real person, and has the name recognition factor.
----------------
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Will win - Melissa Leo: The Fighter Should win - Jacki Weaver: Animal Kingdom
You can pretty much take what I said about Hawkes vs. Bale and apply it to Weaver vs. Leo. Also, Hailee Steinfeld should be in the lead actress category, but enough about people being nominated for the wrong awards.
----------------
Best Achievement in Directing
Will win - David Fincher: The Social Network Should win - Darren Aronofsky: Black Swan
It’s between Fincher and Tom Hooper, I think Fincher takes it on name value, and the perception that The King’s Speech probably would have been good no matter who directed it. Aronofsky should win something for the climax of Black Swan alone. I don’t think there’s been a more entertaining bit of filmmaking all year, and it’s all about the direction with a bit of an assist from the score, but we’ll get to that later…
----------------
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Will win - David Seidler: The King’s Speech Should win - Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg: The Kids Are All Right
I don’t have anything against Speech’s script, but Kids was just perfectly written in every way. I could also see Inception possibly winning as a consolation prize, since it won’t win any other non-technical awards.
----------------
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Will win - Aaron Sorkin: The Social Network Should win - Aaron Sorkin: The Social Network
It seems like a foregone conclusion at this point, but with Precious winning this award last year I suppose anything’s a possibility.
----------------
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Will win - Toy Story 3 Should win - Toy Story 3
I haven’t been able to see The Illusionist yet, but I feel comfortable saying Toy Story 3 should win (I hope I’m wrong, by the way). Pixar makes it four in a row, but with Cars 2 hitting theaters in 2011, I think the streak ends next year, unless it turns out to be a horrible year for animation. Side note: why only three nominees this year?
----------------
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Will win - In a Better World (Denmark) Should win - Dogtooth (Greece)
I haven’t seen enough of the nominees to really say who should win, but Dogtooth was pretty amazing, so what the hell? The “will win” prediction was just a shot in the dark. This category’s been the most unpredictable in recent years.
----------------
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Will win - Wally Pfister: Inception Should win - Roger Deakins: True Grit
Deakins has deserved this award for years, but the Academy has been giving it to films with a flashier style of cinematography in recent years (lots of moving cameras and stuff like that), so I think Pfister takes it, unfortunately.
----------------
Best Achievement in Editing
Will win - Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall: The Social Network Should win - Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall: The Social Network
There’s a great kinetic energy to that film, despite the fact that it’s so talky, the editing plays a big part in that. If 127 Hours wins I’ll probably need to be hospitalized.
----------------
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Will win - Robert Stromberg, Karen O’Hara: Alice in Wonderland Should win - Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh: True Grit
Both are visually splendid films, but True Grit was actually, you know, good.
----------------
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Will win - Colleen Atwood: Alice in Wonderland Should win - Mary Zophres: True Grit
What I said about the art direction award applies here. Not necessarily categories that go hand-in-hand, but they’re both about making things look pretty.
----------------
Best Achievement in Makeup
Will win - Rick Baker, Dave Elsey: The Wolfman
I can’t say who should win, because I haven’t seen any of the nominated films, but I’m leaning towards The Wolfman, simply because Rick Baker has won six of these things already, including the first ever Best Makeup award for An American Werewolf in London. In short: Rick Baker + werewolf movie = Oscar.
----------------
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Will win - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross: The Social Network Who should win - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross: The Social Network
I actually think Clint Mansell should win for “Black Swan” but he was deemed ineligible for some stupid reason. Reznor and Ross’s score also contributes to that kinetic energy that I mentioned earlier, so they’re a damn good second choice, though. It will be fun to watch the guy from Nine Inch Nails accept an Academy Award.
----------------
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Will win - Alan Menken, Glenn Slater: “I See the Light” (Tangled) Should win - Randy Newman: “We Belong Together” (Toy Story 3)
None of the nominated songs were particularly memorable to me, but Disney tends to win this award a lot.
----------------
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Will win - Lora Hischberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick: Inception Should win - Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland: True Grit
The sound awards seem to just go to the loudest film, and that would be Inception
----------------
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Will win - Richard King: Inception Should win - Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey: True Grit
What I said about sound mixing.
----------------
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Will win - Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, Pete Bebb, Paul J. Franklin: Inception Should win - Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley, Pete Bebb, Paul J. Franklin: Inception
Harry Potter had some amazing effects as well, but I’m leaning towards Inception because I often didn’t know what was real and what was digital.
----------------
Best Documentary, Features
Will win - Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs: Inside Job Should win - Banksy, Jaime D’Cruz: Exit Through the Gift Shop
I watched a number of documentaries like Sweetgrass and Waiting For Superman in early 2011/late 2010, anticipating that they’d be nominated and I’d actually know something about this category this year. So much for that. I’ve seen Exit and Restrepo, so that makes me more qualified than I’ve ever been before, but my prediction is still pretty much worthless in this category. I think Inside Job will win for it’s timeliness, but what do I know?
----------------
I won’t bother with the short films, since I‘ve only seen the one that played before Toy Story 3, and I didn’t find that one particularly interesting.
----------------
To sum up: The King’s Speech wins the top prize, but The Social Network ties Inception with the most total awards (4 each), while True Grit gets shut out despite being (at least in my opinion) the most well made movie of the year from a technical standpoint.
|
|
|
Post by Harry on Feb 27, 2011 0:18:41 GMT -5
Anybody catch the Independent Spirit Awards? I missed most of it, but saw that Black Swan took best picture.
|
|
|
Post by Her 69 Eyes on Feb 27, 2011 17:31:09 GMT -5
The Spirit Awards tend to be the best award show, although this year they had some serious sound problems. Everybody in the tent was talking over the presenters and the microphones picked it all up. A lot of the people presenting awards or giving acceptance speeches seemed to hesitate to wait for the audience to sit and quiet down, but given that it's a casual award show I suppose people must've assumed it's alright to fuck around during the ceremony. They need to get rid of the tradition of awarding Best Foreign Language films to pictures made in the UK. The King's Speech winning over great movies that are actually considered, you know, foreign, such as Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives, is so disappointing. It was great to see people like Dale Dickey and John Hawkes get their awards, however, as i'm sure it means a lot to them and they don't have a shot at many other ceremonies. I was also happy to see the attention given to films like Daddy Longlegs and Marwencol. Although I doubt people are going to be seeking those films out (from my experience, awards show watchers are extremely arrogant and suppose everything they haven't heard of isn't as good as the other nominees), again it's wonderful to see small films like those get rewarded on a big stage. I can't work up the enthusiasm to map out my Oscar predictions, although they're pretty similar to AD's. I'm anxious to see where they go in the Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary categories. I've only seen three of the nominees in the former and four in the later, but both awards seem most likely to give us an upset (of course, i'm pulling for Dogtooth and Exit Through the Gift Shop, respectively). --- Oh, and the highlight of the Spirit Awards:
|
|
|
Post by AD on Feb 28, 2011 0:09:53 GMT -5
Well that show sucked.
On the bright side, I was 19 for 21 in my predictions. That's roughly 90.5%. Hooray for me.
|
|
|
Post by Maf on Feb 28, 2011 17:14:18 GMT -5
Freaking Houdini
|
|
|
Post by Her 69 Eyes on Feb 28, 2011 18:10:35 GMT -5
Ah, that Houdini. Always predicting stuff.
|
|
|
Post by whitejefe on Feb 28, 2011 21:23:17 GMT -5
Ah, that Houdini. Always predicting stuff. Goddamn smartass. What are ya? Some kinda goddamn Chupacabra?
|
|
|
Post by Maf on Feb 28, 2011 22:07:18 GMT -5
Seriously? You both need to stop being such Will Smiths and grow up.
|
|
|
Post by whitejefe on Mar 1, 2011 0:07:07 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Harry on Mar 1, 2011 15:20:36 GMT -5
He had it rough, ya know. Being born and raised in West Philadelphia...
|
|